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Consolidated group and segmental performance
 

Highlights

Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent increased by 45 per cent to Rs. 5.12 billion
Group revenue excluding associates increased by 27 per cent to Rs. 41.81 billion
Earnings before interest and tax increased by 34 per cent to Rs. 8.20 billion
Profit before tax increased by 37 per cent to Rs. 6.58 billion
Fully diluted earnings per share increased by 32 per cent to Rs. 8.00 per share
Cash earnings per share increased by 27 per cent to Rs.9.54 per share
Return on capital employed increased marginally from 3.6 per cent to 13.7 per cent
Return on equity increased from 11.4 per cent to 12.3 per cent

 
Summary of key income statement items
 
Rs. million 2007/08 2006/07 Change % Explanatory highlights
  Revenue 41,805 32,855 8,950 27
  Transportation revenue growth of Rs. 3.44 billion driven by LMS
Leisure growth of Rs. 2.20 billion due to commencement of    operations of “Cinnamon Island Alidhoo”
CF&R growth of Rs. 1.59 billion due to expansion of Retail business
  Cost of sales 30,847 23,236 7,611 33
  Increased to 74 per cent of revenue from 71 per cent dueto the    inability to pass on all cost increases to customers
  Share of   associatecompany   profits 2,243 1,701 542 32
   Higher share of an increased SAGT profit
Increase in profits of associates - NTB, UA and AMW
  Other operating   income 2,717 1,180 1,537 130
  Interest income on LKR investments and foreign exchange gains
  Administrative   expenses 5,122 4,261 861 20
  Operating  and  start  up  cost  of “Cinnamon IslandAlidhoo” and     depreciation charge on hotel investmentsand refurbishments
Depreciation of new bottling line at CCS and operatingexpenses    relating to supermarket expansion
  EBIT 8,197 6,109 2,088 34
  Increase in EBIT of Plantation Services due to higher teavolumes    and prices
Increase  in  Transportation  EBIT  due  to  contributionfrom Ports    and Shipping
Interest income at the holding company
  Finance expenses 1,618 1,314 304 23
  Despite a reduction in debt, the increase in the averageweighted    prime lending rate had an impact due to higherproportion of   borrowings on a floating rate
  Profit before tax 6,579 4,795 1,784 37
  Growth in Transportation, Financial Services, PlantationServices and    holding company
Offset by reduction in PBT of Leisure and CF&R
PBT of Property and IT remain flat during the year
  Tax expense 1,055 852 203 24
  Increase  in  taxable  profits  due  to  holding  companyperformance
End of  tax  holiday  at  LMS  with  effect  from 1stDecember 2007
SAGT, AHPL and Maldivian hotels helped in alleviatingthe overall    effective tax rate
  Profit for the period 5,524 3,943 1,581 40
  Growth of 40 per cent led by Transportation, PlantationServices,    Financial Services and the holding company
 
OVERVIEW

2007/08 was a challenging year characterised by high inflation, rising fuel and food prices, both locally and globally, the escalation of military operations in the North and the East and a sharp increase in incidence of ethnic conflict related violence outside the formal hostilities theatre of the North and the East. Resultantly, the economy has slowed from the highest ever recorded 7.7 per cent growth in 2006 to 6.8 per cent growth in the calendar year 2007. Growth in all three sectors, namely, services, industry and agriculture declined, with services, the largest component of the economy, growing by 7.1 per cent compared with 7.7 per cent last year. This growth was led by the posts and telecommunications, cargo handling, transport and financial services segments. This was mirrored by the group's businesses as the Transportation and Financial Services industry groups performed well during the year on the back of increased volumes. However, the impact of the ongoing hostilities and unfavourable travel advisories from the main tourism generating countries adversely affected the performance of the Leisure industry group with the total number of tourist arrivals dropping by 12 per cent to 494,008 from the 559,603 witnessed in the previous year.
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The New Colombo Consumers' Price Index (CCPIN) continued to rise, with the annual average inflation at 17.7 per cent as at 31st March 2008. The pointtopoint inflation as at end April was recorded at 25 per cent. The soaring inflation was due to a combination of factors, including increases in international oil prices and food related commodities, such as sugar, wheat, milk powder and rice and also partly due to the government's borrowing from the banking system in the middle of the year. Monetary policy was kept under tight control throughout the year and interest rates in all markets increased in line with the monetary policy. Call money market rates, however, fluctuated widely, ranging from a low of 12.36 per cent to a high of 42.25 per cent during the financial year. The average weighted prime lending rate (AWPLR), which is the base for a majority of the group's borrowings, decreased to 18.61 per cent as at 31st March 2008 from 20.01 per cent at the beginning of the financial year. However, the mean AWPLR during 2007/08 increased to17.57 per cent from an average 13.75 per cent during the previous year. This had an impact on the finance expense of the group, in spite of a reduction in the overall debt.

The above factors had a varied impact on the group's performance. On the one hand, high inflation affected the purchasing power of consumers due to increased prices of essential commodities, which in turn affected volumes and profitability of the Consumer Foods & Retail industry group, in particular, the beverage segment. The high inflation environment also affected the rate of new investments because of steeper hurdle rates. On the other hand, the group thrived on the volatility of interest rates and a stronger Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) by proactively managing its exposures and opportunities. Further, the group's remuneration model which is founded on a fixed element and a variable component tied to performance/profitability helped to buffer the negatives of high inflation.

Contrary to expectations, the LKR appreciated against the US dollar by 1 per cent from the Rs. 109.32 to close at Rs.107.78 as at 31st March 2008. During the first half of the financial year, the LKR depreciated against the US dollar in line with expectations, reaching Rs. 113.50 in September 2007, with forward premiums on US dollar forward contracts having implied interest rates of 20 per cent. The Government of Sri Lanka's maiden sovereign bond for USD 500 million at a fixed interest rate of 8.25 per cent was successfully concluded in November 2007. The impact of receipt of bond proceeds, coupled with policy changes regarding the limits on bond investments for foreign investors had a favourable impact on the LKR, with the LKR steadily appreciating against the US dollar, reaching a peak of Rs. 107.50 in March 2008. The appreciation of the LKR posed a challenge to all exporters having rupee cost structures. This was no different for the JKH group, which has a majority of its revenue streams denominated in US dollars, such as receipts from SAGT and LMS, apartment sales, hotels (particularly in the Maldives), destination management business and the software development business. The group was able to successfully mitigate adverse impacts through appreciation of the LKR by entering into a series of forward contracts based on its cash flow projections. Similarly, the import related businesses benefited from the appreciation of the rupee by managing its exposures in accordance with perceived trends.

The year under review was also extremely volatile from a global standpoint. The sub prime crisis in the US directly impacted economic growth in the US, foreign exchange markets and interest rates, resulting in unprecedented volatility. With the aim of boosting growth, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began an aggressive monetary easing policy cycle, which resulted in the LIBOR borrowing rates reducing from its high of 5.70 per cent in September 2007 to 2.70 per cent by 31st March 2008. This had a positive impact on the cost of the group's US dollar borrowings in the Maldives, which are primarily on floating rates. The sub prime crisis and consequent write downs by large, reputed international banks resulted in a shortage of liquidity in the market. Considering the environment, JKH concluded a standby loan facility of USD 75 million with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in February 2008 to fund its expansion plans in Sri Lanka and the region. The loan is repayable over 9 years from the date of drawdown, with interest payable at LIBOR plus 275 basis points, which is attractive in the current Sri Lankan market environment. In order to lockin the credit spread, JKH drew down on the total loan on the 4th of April 2008. These funds are now held in foreign currency and would be available to fund the group's overseas investments. The currency exposures arising due to the drawdown are being proactively managed.

 
REVIEW 2007/08
 

Revenue

Group revenue, excluding associate company turnover, registered an increase of 27 per cent from Rs. 32.85 billion to Rs. 41.81 billion in 2007/08, while group revenue, including share of associate company turnover, increased by 29 per cent from Rs. 39.00 billion to Rs. 50.28 billion. The increase is primarily attributable to revenue growth from Transportation, Leisure and Consumer Foods & Retail, all industry groups with high turnover bases. Property also recorded impressive turnover growth, albeit off a lower base. Financial Services and Information Technology revenues declined during the year. Revenues of the Plantation Services sector also contributed to the increase in group revenue

 
 
Transportation

Revenue, including share of associate company turnover, recorded strong growth of 34 per cent from Rs. 12.43 billion to Rs.    16.71 billion during the year.

Growth led by South Asia Gateway Terminal (SAGT) and the bunkering subsidiary, Lanka Marine Services (LMS) on the back of    increased volumes.

Growing volumes also helped DHL Keells (DHL) increase turnover by 21 per cent over the previous year.

The Airlines segment revenues remained flat as compared to the previous year, mainly due to capacity constraints on    movement of cargo from Colombo.

 
Leisure
Revenue grew by a healthy 29 per cent from Rs. 7.59 billion to Rs. 9.79 billion during the year.

Maldivian resort hotels registered a 49 per cent revenue growth, supported by the commencement of operations during the    year of the first Cinnamon resort in the Maldives, “Cinnamon Island Alidhoo”.

In spite of being partially closed for refurbishment, Dhonveli and Ellaidhoo also recorded impressive growth in revenue during    the period under review.

Despite low tourist arrivals into the country, the Sri Lankan resorts also recorded an 18 per cent revenue growth, mainly as a    result of the domestic segment. All Sri Lankan resorts recorded revenue growth, with the exception of Yala Village, which was   affected by sporadic incidents of violence in the area resulting in the closure of the hotel for a period of 4 months.

City Hotels registered a modest 13 per cent increase in revenue boosted by a minimum rate imposition which was effective   from 1st January 2008. This has led to an increase in average room revenues.

The Destination Management business also recorded a 25 per cent revenue increase, primarily on account of the strong   performance of its Indian subsidiary, Serene Holidays, which opened 2 new branches in India during the year to meet growing   market demand.
 
Property
Revenue increased by 79 per cent from Rs. 1.46 billion to Rs. 2.62 billion during the year.

Revenue recognition cycle of “The Monarch” was the primary reason for the increase.

Construction of “The Monarch” project was completed during the year with a majority of the revenue relating to the project being    recognised in the current year.

Recognition of revenue of “The Emperor” project, the construction of which is in progress, also contributed to the increase in    revenue.

Real estate sector revenues grew on the back of improved utilisation of the group's commercial office space. Revenue from    “Crescat Boulevard” increased marginally on account of improved occupancy.
 
Consumer Foods & Retail
Revenue increased by 16 per cent from Rs. 9.79 billion to Rs. 11.38 billion during the year.

Led by impressive growth of 31 per cent in the Retail business, owing to the 11 new supermarket outlets which opened during    the year, coupled with growth in same store revenues.

The turnover of the Consumer Foods business grew by a modest 15 per cent compared with the previous year's turnover.
 
Financial Services
Revenue, including share of associate company turnover, increased by 39 per cent from Rs. 3.46 billion to Rs. 4.80 billion    during the year.

Both associates in this industry group, Nations Trust Bank (NTB) as well as Union Assurance (UA), performed well in the    present macroeconomic

This increase was marginally offset by the revenue decline in the stock broking business, due to the decrease in activity on the    Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).
 
Information Technology
Revenue, including share of associate company turnover, decreased by 8 per cent from Rs. 2.45 billion to Rs. 2.24 billion    during the year.

The decline is attributable to the Systems Integration segment, where many corporate customers postponed their planned    capital expenditure.

The decrease was offset to an extent by the 15 per cent revenue growth in the Software business. The Resource Augmentation    Service (RAS) business contributed to growth in turnover with increased contribution from the Middle Eastern markets.

The Office Automation business also maintained its steady performance with a modest 7 per cent increase in turnover.
 
Others (including Plantation Services)
Plantation Services revenue increased 51 per cent from Rs. 1.80 billion to Rs. 2.72 billion during the year.

Growth in revenue due to the excellent year recorded by the tea industry, both in terms of record volumes and high international    prices.

Total revenue from Others increased by 51 per cent as a result of Plantation Services.
 

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)

Group EBIT increased by 34 per cent to Rs. 8.20 billion compared with Rs. 6.11 billion during the previous year. EBIT contributions from Transportation, Leisure, Property and Others at Rs. 3.10 billion, Rs. 1.12 billion, Rs. 902 million and Rs. 1.97 billion respectively, contributed to 87 per cent of the group's total EBIT.

Plantation Services contributed an EBIT of Rs. 466 million during the year. The EBIT contribution from Others, including Plantation Services and the holding company, increased to 24 per cent of total EBIT from 3 per cent the previous year.

Increases in group EBIT were due to growth in associate company profits from Rs. 1.70 billion to Rs. 2.24 billion and an increased contribution from the holding company. Share of associate company contributions from SAGT, NTB, UA, as well as Associated Motorways (AMW) improved. Other operating income more than doubled to Rs. 2.72 billion as compared to Rs. 1.18 billion in the previous year, the main contributor being interest income of Rs. 2.08 billion and exchange gains of Rs. 275 million.
 
 
Transportation

Increased by Rs. 194 million to Rs. 3.10 billion from Rs.2.91 billion in the previous year.

Growth was primarily due to increased EBIT contributions from Ports and Shipping, led by SAGT.

The increase was offset by the decrease in EBIT in the Logistics and Airlines businesses.

DHL recorded lower margins on account of a higher depreciation charge on investments in automated operational processes    and the quality control centre in its new facility.

Start up costs relating to the third party logistics operations of John Keells Logistics, and a difficult year for freight forwarding in    India and Sri Lanka, also adversely impacted EBIT of the Logistics segment.

 
Leisure

Increased by Rs. 35 million to Rs. 1.12 billion from Rs. 1.09 billion in the previous year.

The EBIT of both the Sri Lankan and Maldivian resorts decreased when compared to the previous year.

This decrease was more than offset by the increase in EBIT in City Hotels, Destination Management and the Hotel    Management sectors.

EBIT of the Maldivian resorts declined as two of the resorts, Dhonveli and Ellaidhoo, were operational for only a part of the year    on account of refurbishments; whilst Cinnamon Island Alidhoo, which commenced operations in July 2007, became fully    operational only in October due to teething issues.

Given the unfavourable travel advisories issued by some major tourism generation countries and the resultant drop in    volumes, the Sri Lankan resorts experienced lower margins due to the lower absorption of fixed costs.

The resorts in Yala and Habarana experienced disruptions in operations during the year owing to the security situation in these    areas.

Destination Management companies performed well mainly on account of the cost savings generated from process    efficiencies at Walkers Tours and the sale of its subsidiary, Unawatuna Walk Inn Limited.

Hotel Management companies also recorded a higher EBIT on account of expansion of its portfolio of providing technical and   other services.

 
Property
Increased by Rs. 32 million to Rs. 902 million from Rs. 870 million in the previous year.

Increase was despite a reduction in the EBIT of Keells Realtors, as the previous year’s EBIT included the profits from the   divestment of Nawam Mawatha property.

Increase primarily on account of recognition of profits arising from the receipt of the final tranche of “The Monarch” project, and    cash received on “The Emperor” project. The remaining profits from “The Monarch” project will be recognised during the first    quarter of the financial year 2008/09.

EBIT growth was also supported by the reduction in maintenance costs through various cost saving initiatives.
 
Consumer Foods & Retail

Declined by Rs. 65 million to Rs. 580 million from Rs. 645 million in the previous year.

JayKay Marketing (JMSL), the owners of the “Keells Super” brand of retail outlets, did extremely well and more than doubled    their EBIT during the year supported by the opening of 11 new outlets, which progressively dilute the fixed costs of operations at    the centre.

The Convenience Foods segment also increased its EBIT by 45 per cent, driven by growth in revenue and an increase in    margins.

However, these increases were offset by the decrease in EBIT at Ceylon Cold Stores (CCS). In spite of revenue growth of 15    per cent, the CCS EBIT declined due to longer than expected time required for installing the two new bottling lines and the    higher depreciation arising from its capitalisation. The delay also resulted in an increase in operating costs and a loss of sales    volumes which resulted in an underabsorption of fixed costs.

High commodity prices and local cost increases also had an impact on the margins.

 
Financial Services

Increased by Rs. 84 million to Rs. 422 million from Rs. 338 million in the previous year.

Strong performances of associates NTB and UA with increases of Rs. 92 million and Rs. 28 million respectively were the    primary reasons for the increase.

Increase partially offset by the reduction in EBIT of the stock broking business which was affected by reduced activity at the    CSE.

 
Information Technology

Declined by Rs. 4 million to Rs. 98 million from Rs. 102 million in the previous year.

Reduction primarily due to losses in the business process outsourcing (BPO) business, albeit within plan, owing to the    insufficient dilution of its high fixed cost base.

This decrease was partially compensated by higher EBIT from the Software Services business, John Keells Computer    Services (JKCS) as well as the Office Automation business.

The joint venture of JKCS with AirArabia is beginning to reap rewards, with its flagship reservation solution “AccelAero” in    demand with a number of low cost carriers.

The appreciation of the rupee, the resultant lower input costs and rationalising of the product portfolio, enabled the Office   Automation business to improve its EBIT

 
Others, including Plantation Services

Plantation Services EBIT increased by Rs. 228 million to Rs. 466 million from Rs. 238 million in the previous year.

Increased contributions from Tea Smallholders, John Keells PLC and John Keells Teas Limited on account of higher    revenues and margins.

As a result, total EBIT from Others, including Plantation Services, increased by Rs.1.81 billion in 2007/08, owing both to the    strong performance of the Plantation Services sector as well as higher interest income arising from the effective management    of funds.

 

Industry group EBIT margins

EBIT margins of the group increased to 16.3 per cent against 15.7 per cent in the previous year. Increased pressure on the cost structures and the inability to pass on all cost increases to customers, resulted in EBIT margins of Transportation, Leisure and Consumer Foods & Retail declining when compared with the previous year. This was offset by impressive margins in Plantation Services and at the holding company. Further details on EBIT margins can be found in the ROCE discussion of this report.
 
 
Industry group EBIT margins
       
  2008 2007 2006
Transportation 18.60% 23.40% 22.60%
Leisure 11.50% 14.30% 15.10%
Property 34.50% 59.50% 34.80%
CF & R 5.10% 6.60% 5.10%
Financial Services 8.80% 9.80% 13.70%
IT 4.30% 4.20% 6.80%
       
 

Finance expenses

Group finance expenses increased by 23 per cent to Rs. 1.62 billion from Rs. 1.31 billion in the previous year. Although the debt as at 31st March 2008 reduced to Rs. 12.67 billion as compared to Rs. 15.36 billion the previous year, the increase in the mean AWPLR throughout the year to 17.57 per cent from 13.75 per cent during the previous year, resulted in the increase in finance expenses. However, the impact of rising interest rates were partially negated due to Rs. 2 billion of debentures raised by JKH last year being on fixed rates and applicable “caps”. Proceeds from the rights issue were partly utilised to retire short term debt. The Leisure and Consumer Foods & Retail industry groups together accounted for Rs. 953 million of finance expenses, being 59 per cent of the total group. The finance expense of the holding company reduced to Rs. 529 million from Rs. 570 million in the previous year.

 
 

Taxation

Group tax expense increased to Rs. 1.05 billion from Rs. 852 million in the previous year, an increase of 24 per cent. Total tax expense comprised primarily of Rs. 949 million as income tax and Rs. 184 million as dividend tax.

Despite the higher contribution to group profits by taxable companies and the impact of LMS ceasing its tax exemption in December 2007, the overall effective group tax rate fell from 17.8 per cent to 16.0 per cent in the current year. This is primarily attributable to the holding company benefiting from setoff of tax losses in the current year, where the company had not recognised a corresponding deferred tax asset in the previous year. Moreover, resulting from changes in fiscal legislation, the group also benefited from the writeback of Economic Service Charge (ESC) of Rs. 33 million, which had been written off previously.

 

Profit after taxation (PAT)

Group PAT increased to Rs. 5.52 billion, an increase of 40 per cent from Rs. 3.94 billion in the previous year. Main contributors towards PAT were Transportation at Rs. 2.90 billion and Property at Rs. 785 million. Plantation Services contributed Rs. 277 million to PAT, while a contribution of Rs. 519 million came from the holding company.

 

Minority interest

Minority interest remained almost flat at Rs. 406 million for 2007/08 compared to the previous year. However, the MI share of PAT reduced to 7.3 per cent from 10.4 percent recorded during the previous year. The lower profits of CCS and the Maldivian resorts resulted in much lower minority shares during the year, although this decrease was offset by an increase in the minority share of the plantation subsidiaries.

 

Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent

The profit attributable to equity holders of the parent increased by 45 per cent to Rs. 5.12 billion during the year. The net profit margin of the group also increased to 12.2 per cent as compared to 10.8 per cent during the previous year.

 
 
Quarterly performance at a glance
 
           
  FY 2007/08
Rs. millions Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Net turnover 8,468 9,669 11,066 12,602 41,805
PBT 1,093 1,279 1,716 2,491 6,579
  Transportation 824 831 729 670 3,054
  Leisure (351) (66) 88 693 364
  Property 95 89 207 450 841
  CF&R 86 39 117 145 387
  Financial Services 113 141 123 45 422
  IT (26) 21 6 89 90
  Other 352 224 446 399 1,421
Profit attributable to
shareholders 821 1,028 1,356 1,913 5,118
Total assets 66,214 66,333 67,488 71,794 71,794
Total equity 43,105 44,335 44,999 48,992 48,992
Total debt 15,225 13,509 13,710 12,667 12,667
Closing share
price (Rs.) 145.50 129.00 128.00 119.75 119.75
           
 
The quarterly performance of the group depicts the improving quarter on quarter performance with the last quarter showing the strongest growth. Leisure recorded an impressive 4th quarter jump in profits owing to the good performance of the group's Maldivian resorts, all of which were fully operational during this quarter. Property also recorded the bulk of its profits in the 4th quarter based on recognition of revenues on the receipt of the final tranche of customer payments on “The Monarch”. Transportation showed a slight decline in profits on the back of falling margins.
 

Return on equity and return on capital employed

The group capital employed increased by 6 per cent to Rs. 61.66 billion as at 31st March 2008 from Rs. 58.20 billion in the previous year. The ROCE for the group improved marginally to 13.7 per cent against the 13.6 per cent recorded in 2006/07, on the back of the 34 per cent increase in EBIT to Rs. 8.20 billion from the Rs. 6.11 in the previous year.

 
 
The return on equity (ROE) improved to 12.3 per cent in 2007/08 from 11.4 per cent the previous year, on account of the 45 per cent growth in profits attributable to equity holders of the parent. Growth in ROE was driven primarily by an increase in the return on assets from 7.5 per cent to 8.0 per cent. The common earnings leverage (CEL) which indicates the proportion of PAT that is allocable to shareholders, increased to 0.93 due to increased contribution from associate companies and a reduction in profits from companies with a high MI. The capital structure leverage (CSL) which measures the degree to which shareholders funds are utilised to fund assets, fell to 1.65 due to the increase in average shareholders equity.
 
  ROE   = ROA  x CEL   x CSL
2007/08 12.3%   = 8.0%  x 0.93   x 1.65
2006/07 11.4%   = 7.5% x 0.90   x 1.70
                 
 

Though group EBIT margins increased to 16.3 per cent from 15.7 per cent last year, ROCE improved only marginally due to the decrease in capital employed turnover to 0.84 as compared to 0.87 in the previous year, indicating that revenues did not increase commensurately with the increase in capital employed.

  ROCE   = EBIT
margin 
x Asset
turnover
  x Assets/
(Debt+
equity)
2007/08 13.7%   = 16.3% x 0.73   x 1.15
2006/07 13.6%   = 15.7% x 0.74   x 1.17
                 
 
From an industry group standpoint, Property, Financial Services and Others contributed to higher ROCEs while the ROCE of Transportation, Leisure, Consumer Foods & Retail and Information Technology declined, compared to the previous year. The industry groups with the larger share of capital employed, namely, Transportation and Leisure which together account for approximately 60 per cent of the group's capital employed, registered a drop in EBIT margins which impacted the group's ROCE.
 
Transportation
ROCE of 28.3 per cent, an 8.5 percentage point drop as compared to 36.8 per cent in the previous year.

Although the average capital employed increased to Rs. 10.96 billion from Rs. 7.90 billion in the previous year due to the    increased investment in SAGT in October 2006, the asset turnover at 1.30 remained in line with last year.

The reduction in ROCE is primarily attributable to the decrease in EBIT margins from 23.4 per cent last year to18.6 per cent   during the year, primarily as a result of lower margins in the Transportation segment.
 
ROCE =    EBIT margin x Asset turnover x Assets/(Debt+
equity)
Transportation 28.30% = 18.60% x 1.30 x 1.17
Leisure 4.90% = 11.50% x 0.39 x 1.10
Property 19.20% = 34.50% x 0.48 x 1.15
CF&R 15.70% = 5.10% x 1.97 x 1.56
Financial Services 25.70% = 8.80% x 2.50 x 1.17
IT 5.40% = 4.30% x 0.98 x 1.26
               
 
Leisure

ROCE of 4.9 per cent, a 1.4 percentage point drop as compared to 6.3 per cent in the previous year.

The average capital employed increased from Rs. 17.39 billion to Rs. 22.90 billion due to the capitalisation of refurbishments    costs of Dhonveli and Ellaidhoo and the acquisition of Tranquility (Pvt) Ltd.

Turnover increases were in line with the increase in capital employed, resulting in similar asset turnover ratios.

Decrease in ROCE is solely attributable to a fall in EBIT margins to 11.5 per cent from 14.3 per cent in the previous year.

EBIT margins were impacted by part closure of the two Maldivian properties for refurbishments, the operating costs of    Cinnamon Island Alidhoo and lower margins at the Sri Lankan resorts.

US dollar denominated contracts entered into previously at lower rates, coupled with increased rupee costs due to the high    inflation environment, affected margins in the Sri Lankan resorts

 
 
Property
ROCE of 19.2 per cent, 2.8 percentage points increase compared to 16.4 per cent in the previous year.

Although EBIT margins dropped significantly from 59.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, this decrease was more than offset by the   increase in asset turnover, which doubled to 0.48 compared to the previous year, due to the revenue recognition cycle.

EBIT margins were also higher in the previous year due to the profits realised from the sale of the Nawam Mawatha property,    the divestment of Crescat Restaurants as well as the gains from the change in fair value of investment property, all non    recurring one time gains.
 

Consumer Foods & Retail
ROCE of 15.7 per cent, 7.6 percentage point drop compared to 23.3 per cent in the previous year.

Decrease on account of lower EBIT margins as well as a lower asset turnover ratio.

EBIT margins dropped to 5.1 per cent during the year compared to 6.6 per cent during the previous year, mainly on account of    higher input costs and higher depreciation of the two bottling lines installed.

Average capital employed increased from Rs. 2.76 billion to Rs. 3.69 billion as at 31st March 2008 due to the capitalisation of    the two new bottling lines at CCS.

However, the asset turnover reduced to 1.97 against the previous year's 2.25 as the revenue generating capacity of the bottling    lines were not fully utilised, given that they became fully operational only in October 2007.

Financial Services
ROCE of 25.7 per cent, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to 23.1 per cent in the previous year.

Increase primarily attributable to the increase in asset turnover, off a low capital base, to 2.50 from 2.17 in the previous year,    which more than offset the 1 percentage point EBIT margin drop to 8.8 percent.

The drop in EBIT margins was due to a fall in the margins of the stock broking business, while margins at NTB and UA    remained essentially the same.

Information Technology
ROCE of 5.4 per cent, 4.0 percentage point drop compared to 9.4 per cent in the previous year.

EBIT margins improved marginally to 4.3 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

The reduction in asset turnover to 1.0 from 1.6 the previous year is a result of lower than expected performance of Keells    Business Systems and the unabsorbed higher fixed costs at the still developing BPO business.

The average capital employed increased to Rs. 1.82 billion from Rs. 1.09 billion in the previous year as a result of more    investment in the BPO business.

Further details on ROCE are available in the portfolio movements and evaluation section.

 

Group outlook

he trend of rising inflation and the corresponding increase in interest rates is expected to have an impact on the growth of the Sri Lankan economy. Coupled with a slowdown in the US and the Euro zone, which could affect the exports of the country, growth is forecasted to be lower than the present year. The Sri Lankan economy is projected to grow at 7.0 per cent in 2008 as per the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Independent forecasts from IMF, ADB and other analysts range between 5.5 to 6.4 per cent. From a policy standpoint, the primary concern would be reduction of inflation. With this in mind, the Central Bank has reduced the reserve money target. However, supply side factors such as high oil prices and sustained high price levels of essential commodities, would limit the impact of curbing demand driven inflation. It is likely that inflation would remain at present levels in the initial portion of the financial year, although a fall in inflation could be anticipated towards the end of the year, aided by base effects. Whilst the decision to allow foreign investors to invest up to 10 per cent of treasury bills issued has resulted in lowering of yields, many forecasts are that interest rates would remain at present levels till such time inflation is on a definitive downward trend.

In such an environment, the group is conscious of the importance of driving efficiencies, managing volatility and being proactive. The anticipated high inflationary environment, coupled with increases in electricity tariffs are expected to put further pressure on the cost structures, particularly in industry groups such as Leisure and CF&R. Whilst initiatives have been in place, renewed focus will be paid to lowering energy costs across the board. As discussed in the Sustainability Report, the group has commissioned internationally recognised consultants to assist the group in measuring its sustainable practices, which would include aspects such as energy efficiencies, water preservation, paper recycling and future measurement of the group's carbon footprint.

Continuous and unprecedented rises in global commodity prices such as oil and sugar have posed challenges in maintaining margins in some of the group’s key businesses. The group will monitor price movements closely and enter into hedging instruments, where deemed necessary. Whilst managing costs is important, building scale in operations is also crucial, particularly for the “Keells Super” chain of supermarkets. The operations of the central warehouse are being consolidated and this would enable the chain to be more aggressive in its rollout of outlets, resulting in synergies and economies of scale, which could have a positive impact on margins. In spite of rising raw material prices, construction costs of “The Emperor” are not expected to increase significantly since the group has entered into a fixed price US dollar contract with the contractor.

Although interest rate and inflation differentials would indicate depreciation of the LKR against the US dollar, inflows from foreign investors seeking to take advantage of carry trade opportunities would support the LKR, resulting in expectations for the LKR to remain at present levels and then depreciate gradually in the latter part of the financial year. Since the group's revenue streams from Maldivian hotels, final payment of “The Monarch” and advances of “The Emperor” and inflows from LMS are primarily in US dollars, the group will continuously evaluate hedging mechanisms to optimise the effects from its US dollar receipts.

The high LKR interest rate environment is expected to have an impact on the finance expenses of the group, particularly in Leisure and CF&R which have a higher level of borrowings on floating rates. The easing of the interest rate policy by the US Fed and the corresponding reduction in LIBOR rates, should compensate for any adverse impacts in Leisure which has a significant portion of its borrowings in US dollars. However, the group is conscious of the possibility of an increase in LIBOR and will continuously evaluate the attractiveness of entering into interest rate swaps to fix interest rates.

 

Outlook for industry groups

The services sector of the economy has consistently grown over the last few years, with the performance of the Colombo Port expected to continue its growth momentum. This would positively impact the Transportation industry group, with SAGT and LMS benefiting. During the ensuing year, the group would accelerate its thrust to expand its logistics operations in India.

Continuation of the conflict at heightened levels as seen during the year would have an impact on the performance of Leisure in the Sri Lankan market. The group invested a total of USD 10.4 million in refurbishing and expanding the facilities at Ellaidhoo and Dhonveli. With all four resorts in the Maldives now fully operational, the group would be able to mitigate adverse impacts, if any, in the Sri Lankan market. In order to strengthen its position in the Maldives, the group is investing further in the construction of beach and shore protection measures at Alidhoo and Dhonveli. With a view to further diversifying its risk in Sri Lanka and Maldives, the Leisure industry group is aggressively pursuing hotel investments in the IndoChina region. Meanwhile, Serene Holidays, the group's destination management business in India, is expected to expand, with the opening of new branches on the cards.

Although the current environment is not conducive for investment in property development, the group will retain its land bank and look to enter the market when factors are more favourable. During the ensuing year, Property will look to capitalise on the competencies built through construction of “The Monarch” to embark on property development projects in the South Asian and South East Asian region, in partnership with reputed international developers. The group recently entered into a MOU with AMW and Finlays Colombo to jointly develop a contiguous 6.6 acre block of land with access from Union Place and Vauxhall Street. The project is expected to commence in 2010, subject to market conditions.

With expectations for inflation to remain high, and the resultant impact on disposable incomes of consumers, the CF&R industry group could potentially face a slowdown in market growth. Lower disposable incomes have also limited the quantum of cost escalations that could be passed on to the consumer. The new bottling line at CCS is expected to improve efficiency as well as give flexibility in marketing by catering to consumer needs through different product offerings. Certain strategic initiatives are in place to ensure rationalisation of the portfolio, a new distribution model, automation of processes to increase production efficiencies and to optimise the use of its management information system. In order to drive volumes in Convenience Foods, the group has invested in setting up a manufacturing plant in India to cater to its growing middle class. Once infrastructure and capacity are built, particularly relating to the cold chain, the group plans to ramp up production and cater to a wider geographical segment of the market.

The group's investment in Quatrro F&A is a first step in its expansion into the high value F&A vertical in the BPO space, exploiting the potential of Sri Lanka. With the slowdown in the US and companies seeking to rationalise costs, the BPO industry is expected to continue its growth.

The group will seek to expand the operations of the newly acquired USbased F&A entity, Financial Process Outsourcing LLC, by adding seats in Sri Lanka and India. Moreover, Auxicogent, the group’s BPO arm is expected to increase its capacity in Sri Lanka and India as it focusses aggressively on new customer acquisition. The Software Services sector will focus on creating and owning Intellectual Property rights that will enable it to increase its penetration in to the UK and Middle Eastern markets.

The present high levels of interest rates have posed challenges, whilst also creating opportunities, for the financial services industry. NTB and UA are expected to continue the growth momentum seen in the current year. Both entities are looking at launching new products to enhance the present levels of solutions offered to its client base. The partnership entered into with the leading Bangladeshi stock broking firm to participate in investment banking transactions and management of initial public offerings by Bangladeshi corporates, is expected to have a positive impact on the profits of the stock broking arm of the group.

The volatile environment in Sri Lanka, and globally, will make the year ahead a challenging one. However, as outlined above, the group is well positioned to overcome these challenges through the initiatives discussed above. At a time when the market is short of liquidity, the group has adequate cash resources in LKR and US dollars to funds its project pipeline. The JKH group has delivered consistent performance in the past. Through the numerous initiatives outlined above and discussed in the Chairman's message, the group intends continuing its growth momentum towards meeting its goal of providing shareholders with a 20 per cent ROE.